A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman PDF

A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman PDF

By Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman

ISBN-10: 0521875498

ISBN-13: 9780521875493

Over the past thirty years there was wide use of constant time econometric equipment in macroeconomic modelling. This monograph offers the 1st non-stop time macroeconometric version of the uk incorporating stochastic developments. Its improvement represents a big breakthrough in non-stop time macroeconomic modelling. The ebook describes the hot version intimately and, like past types, it truly is designed in this type of method as to allow a rigorous mathematical research of its steady-state and balance houses, hence supplying a worthy payment at the potential of the version to generate believable long-run behaviour. The version is predicted utilizing newly constructed designated Gaussian estimation equipment for non-stop time econometric versions incorporating unobservable stochastic developments. The ebook additionally comprises dialogue of the applying of the version to dynamic research and forecasting.

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Additional resources for A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends

Example text

As can be seen from this formulation, the exact discrete model coefficients are complicated functions of the underlying parameters of the continuous time model, and such was the available computer power in the 1960s and 1970s that it was infeasible to use this approach in general empirical work. It was, however, shown in Phillips [1972] that this exact model can be used to obtain consistent and asymptotically efficient estimates of the parameter vector θ, and in an important Monte Carlo study Phillips [1972] found that these estimates have finite sample properties superior to those obtained by using the approximate simultaneous model (see Phillips [1972] for details).

In addition to these parameters, we also have to estimate the parameters of the covariance matrix of the white noise errors E[ζ(dt)ζ (dt)] = dt (µ), where 15 is a Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends matrix whose elements are known functions of µ. The total parameters to be estimated then comprise [θ, µ, y]. Our aim in empirical work is to estimate these underlying parameters of the second-order continuous time model. This is achieved by deriving the exact discrete model corresponding to this second-order system, under certain assumptions concerning the unobservable continuous time paths of the exogenous variables (see Phillips [1974a, 1976]).

The error term ζ(dt) is assumed to be a vector of white noise innovations (see Bergstrom 9 Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends [1984a] for a precise definition and interpretation of this system). We assume the continuous time model generates equispaced discrete data observed as the sequence {x(0), x(1), . } and our objective is to estimate the parameters of the continuous time model. Two approaches that have been used in the past have become known as the Discrete Approximation Method and the Exact Discrete Model approach.

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A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman

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